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Wow, what a year! 2017 broke so many records, and it's been a full time job just keeping track of all the solar that's been installed.
We've already identified 100 projects over 100kW that were commissioned in 2017, and I'm sure there's more to crawl out of the woodwork. The current tally has a total capacity of 116MW, which is sure to rise.
2017 has been a year of records for Australian solar power, and the year's not even finished yet. Here are some of the highlights of the 10 records that have been broken in 2017 (some of them multiple times):
Before we do, if you don't already subscribe to our Insights service, then a) you're missing out on regular updates like these, and b) now is the perfect time to get our 2016 Year in Review - which includes a 3 month subscription to Insights that means you'll also automatically receive the 2017 Year in Review
Fastest time to reach 1GW of commissioned solar in a calendar year. There's only been one year where Australia has commissioned more than 1GW of PV - this was in 2012, where there was 1.01GW of sub-100kW PV and 1.06GW of PV commissioned in total. Analysis of the 2017 STC market shows that 972MW of sub-100kW PV has been registered in 2017 - however, 79MW of this 2016 installations that registered STCs in 2017. Therefore our current total is 893MW of sub-100kW PV commissioned in 2017 - a figure that looks set to reach 1.05GW once the final tally is in. SunWiz's Large-scale Lookout tracks every system above 100kW that is mentioned publicly. It shows that over 114MW of systems over 100kW have already been commissioned in 2017 (of which Kidston Solar Farm contributed 50MW). Our current tally is therefore 1.00 GW by the end of November.
Come the LREC surrender deadline this Wednesday, things are getting tight for power companies to purchase and surrender enough LGCs from the market to meet their liability. Historically, Liable Entities (LE) have had excellent compliance rates, but when the price of LGCs soared last year, ERM and some other LEs opted to pay the shorftfall penalty price rather than surrender LGCs. They were taken to task by the Clean Energy Regulator, and appear to have re-engaged with the market.
This year, there is still plenty sufficient LGCs available on the market to meet this year's liability - 32.7million are available, and 25.2million need to be surrendered. The problem facing many LEs is that, whereas in previous years LGCs were easy to find as there was a sizeable oversupply, this year some LEs are holding far more than what they need, meaning there are others who must scramble to find LGCs from the market.
There is only three more days for the LEs who don't currently hold enough LGCs to meet their liability - so they need to quickly discover who is holding excess LGCs, and line up a trade - otherwise they'll be paying a fine and could suffer reputational damage. But its difficult to know who is holding excess LGCs, as there isn't a publicly-accessible source of information on who is holding LGCs, how many they're holding, and how much they have to surrender.
Fortunately, SunWiz has been analysing the REC Registry for 7 years now, and has built up a rich database of information on current holdings, recent years' surrender volumes, projected 2018 surrender volumes, and trading partners for each Liable Entity. From our RETelligence, we can identify who is holding enough LGCs, and who isn't.
Here's some insights we can pull from the data. Note that all of these statements are based off last year's surrender volumes, adjusted for the increase in the RET target.
As a group, the LEs hold sufficient LGCs to meet their collective liability, holding 29M as seen in the chart below
However, individual LEs appear to hold up to 1M LGCs than their need (e.g. Snowy Hydro).
Pacific Hydro is holding three times the volume they need for their own requirements. Water Corp is in a similar position, as is Power & Water Corp
Other individual LEs are very short, holding up to 500k LGCs less than their Liability with three days left to trade.
Two of the big three retailers appear to have met their individual liability. The third appears to be 17% short (540k LGCs).
There are 9 LEs who need to secure 100k or more LGCs in the next three days
Current Holdings by Classification of Owner: LE's hold 29M at present
Let's take a look at ERM, as an example.
ERM is holding 3.2M LGCs at the time of writing.
Two years ago they surrendered 1.9M LGCs.
Since then the target has grown from 18.55M LGCs to 26.03M LGCs
Assuming their market share of electricity sales hasn't changed in the meanwhile, their liability this year would be 2.67M LGCs
Therefore they are holding sufficient LGCs to meet their liability.
We can therefore conclude that ERM has met its RET obligation this year.
Most of ERM's purchasing activity happened in January 2018.
Most of the LGCs ERM bought in 2018 came from EDL, ANZ, Meridian, EA, and Macquarie Bank
But there's plenty of people who need to get their act together.
One of the big three, who appear to be 540k behind (17% of their liability)
Over 16 LEs that still require over 90% of their Liability to be purchased in the next three days.
A small extract of who's holding more or less than what they need, and this information as a percentage.
If you are a Liable Entity that needs assistance in finding a trading partner in order to meet your LGC liability, please contact SunWiz.
In 2017, Hydro made up 16% of LGC creation, wind was 64%, and Solar was 4%
What an incredible response! SunWiz launched its mid-year update on the Australian battery market and it was picked up by Channel 7, ABC news, News Limited, the AFR, and Fairfax! We hope all this positive press around batteries is helping drive customers to your businesses!!!
In cased you missed the press, some of the key info from the report is:
Recently released investigation shows Phono Solar and Kyocera Solar top list of highly-accelerated lifetime tests.
Millions of low-quality solar panels have been installed on Australian roofs in the past decade. This unfortunately occurred because our solar market was primarily comprised of residential installations, and because mums and dads lack the expertise to differentiate panel quality.
Therefore a great deal of responsibility for selling good quality product falls onto the heads of PV retailers. And any PV retailer interested in remaining profitable for more than six months has some self-interest in choosing a good quality panel manufacturer, as: