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Come the LREC surrender deadline this Wednesday, things are getting tight for power companies to purchase and surrender enough LGCs from the market to meet their liability. Historically, Liable Entities (LE) have had excellent compliance rates, but when the price of LGCs soared last year, ERM and some other LEs opted to pay the shorftfall penalty price rather than surrender LGCs. They were taken to task by the Clean Energy Regulator, and appear to have re-engaged with the market.
This year, there is still plenty sufficient LGCs available on the market to meet this year's liability - 32.7million are available, and 25.2million need to be surrendered. The problem facing many LEs is that, whereas in previous years LGCs were easy to find as there was a sizeable oversupply, this year some LEs are holding far more than what they need, meaning there are others who must scramble to find LGCs from the market.
There is only three more days for the LEs who don't currently hold enough LGCs to meet their liability - so they need to quickly discover who is holding excess LGCs, and line up a trade - otherwise they'll be paying a fine and could suffer reputational damage. But its difficult to know who is holding excess LGCs, as there isn't a publicly-accessible source of information on who is holding LGCs, how many they're holding, and how much they have to surrender.
Fortunately, SunWiz has been analysing the REC Registry for 7 years now, and has built up a rich database of information on current holdings, recent years' surrender volumes, projected 2018 surrender volumes, and trading partners for each Liable Entity. From our RETelligence, we can identify who is holding enough LGCs, and who isn't.
Here's some insights we can pull from the data. Note that all of these statements are based off last year's surrender volumes, adjusted for the increase in the RET target.
As a group, the LEs hold sufficient LGCs to meet their collective liability, holding 29M as seen in the chart below
However, individual LEs appear to hold up to 1M LGCs than their need (e.g. Snowy Hydro).
Pacific Hydro is holding three times the volume they need for their own requirements. Water Corp is in a similar position, as is Power & Water Corp
Other individual LEs are very short, holding up to 500k LGCs less than their Liability with three days left to trade.
Two of the big three retailers appear to have met their individual liability. The third appears to be 17% short (540k LGCs).
There are 9 LEs who need to secure 100k or more LGCs in the next three days
Current Holdings by Classification of Owner: LE's hold 29M at present
Let's take a look at ERM, as an example.
ERM is holding 3.2M LGCs at the time of writing.
Two years ago they surrendered 1.9M LGCs.
Since then the target has grown from 18.55M LGCs to 26.03M LGCs
Assuming their market share of electricity sales hasn't changed in the meanwhile, their liability this year would be 2.67M LGCs
Therefore they are holding sufficient LGCs to meet their liability.
We can therefore conclude that ERM has met its RET obligation this year.
Most of ERM's purchasing activity happened in January 2018.
Most of the LGCs ERM bought in 2018 came from EDL, ANZ, Meridian, EA, and Macquarie Bank
But there's plenty of people who need to get their act together.
One of the big three, who appear to be 540k behind (17% of their liability)
Over 16 LEs that still require over 90% of their Liability to be purchased in the next three days.
A small extract of who's holding more or less than what they need, and this information as a percentage.
If you are a Liable Entity that needs assistance in finding a trading partner in order to meet your LGC liability, please contact SunWiz.
In 2017, Hydro made up 16% of LGC creation, wind was 64%, and Solar was 4%
What an incredible response! SunWiz launched its mid-year update on the Australian battery market and it was picked up by Channel 7, ABC news, News Limited, the AFR, and Fairfax! We hope all this positive press around batteries is helping drive customers to your businesses!!!
In cased you missed the press, some of the key info from the report is:
Recently released investigation shows Phono Solar and Kyocera Solar top list of highly-accelerated lifetime tests.
Millions of low-quality solar panels have been installed on Australian roofs in the past decade. This unfortunately occurred because our solar market was primarily comprised of residential installations, and because mums and dads lack the expertise to differentiate panel quality.
Therefore a great deal of responsibility for selling good quality product falls onto the heads of PV retailers. And any PV retailer interested in remaining profitable for more than six months has some self-interest in choosing a good quality panel manufacturer, as:
Believe the Hype: Australia's Battery Market is set for eye-watering growth
For quite some time I'd dismissed the hype about the attractiveness of installing grid-connected batteries in Australia. Yes, everyone loves the idea of energy independence, and would love to give the middle finger to the electricity retailers who buy excess solar power at a fifth of the price they themselves charge. But I thought there would be few people willing to spend tens of thousands of dollars to do so. On top of that, though Tesla had created a surge of interest, most PV retailers were struggling to convert that into sales, or had limited product supply options.
SunWiz today released the results of its extensive surveys, interviews, and research into the Australian market for energy storage.
SunWiz's research concludes that there were at 6750 battery installations in 2016, totalling 52MWh. To put this into context, there were 130,000 installations of solar power systems in 2016, meaning that effectively 5% of solar installations included batteries in the past year.
Says Warwick Johnston, Managing Director of SunWiz "6750 installations in 2016 represents exceptional growth in the Australian battery market, coming off the back of 500 battery installations in 2015. What makes it all the more impressive is that most installations occurred in the latter part of the year, setting up 2017 to be another year of remarkable growth". Johnston says "SunWiz expects the market to treble in 2017, suggesting 15% of new solar installations will include energy storage this year."
New South Wales was the #1 location for battery installations, followed closely by Queensland. South Australia has the most favourable market for battery installations, owing to large amounts of sunlight, high electricity prices, and subsidy programs from government, AGL, and SAPN - all of which contribute towards some solar-storage systems having 7-year paybacks before subsidy.
2016 was also the largest year for storage projects. Highlights inlcude the 2MWh installation at the Sandfire Copper Mine, the 1.1MWh community installation at Alkimos Beach, and the ACT auction.
Survey respondents from solar retailers indicated that 70% of sales enquiries for solar also enquire about batteries. Customers are interested in the ability of batteries to become grid-independent, reduce electricity bills, and make more efficient use of their solar panels.
The report, which was based on hundreds of hours of interviews, surveys, and research, provides transparency into what is otherwise a very opaque market. Johnston says "our interviews highlighted the storage market is in its infancy and market education is required. Customer expectations of batteries differ markedly from the capabilities and value proposition of most offerings on the market, and salespeople are also caught up in the excitement. Batteries aren't yet a commodity - one size doesn't fit all and tools such as PVsell can help identify which is the best option for individual customers.