86 MW registered in September, the town of Warwick (QLD) a solar hot spot;  Discovering a forgotten paradise, great solar pictures
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Solar Market Intelligence

Solar Market Synopsis: October

Australian PV system registrations fell considerably in September, following a general downturn in the market. A downturn was expected after the reduction in solar multiplier drove installations into Q2, but registrations in Q3 were buoyed by the closing feed-in tariffs in Queensland and Victoria, and by the lag between intallation and registration. Overall, 84 MW was registered nationally in September, a 15% fall from August, and 27% lower than the registration peak in June. September was a quieter month in all states other than Victoria, who managed to register the same volume as the previous month. 40% of recent system capacity went into Queensland, with Victoria at 25%. However, registration in both states is expected to decline considerably over coming months.

In Q3 last year, NSW registration plummeted as the backlog of approved systems were finally installed ahead of the multiplier reduction. This effectively sucked the life out of the state, which languised for 12 months.  So, perhaps the least-worst news is that NSW has finally recovered from the valley of death that followed its installation boom: Registration figures in Q3 2012 were higher than those for the same period one year ago, though still lower than those figures of Q3 2011. A one-to-two year setback must also be considered as possible in Queensland, where 9 months of pre-registered interest was created at the closure of its feed-in tariff. Anecdotally, NSW companies used to selling in the absence of a feed-in tarff are making new sales more easily in Queensland than local companies, but the industry remains dependent upon the SRES to sustain itself as it weans itself off transitionary support provided by the solar multiplier.

As a result of the wind-back in feed-in tariffs, people are moving back towards smaller systems in NSW and WA, which could be considered a less efficient outcome for the environment. This trend is countered by those seeking to make use of the last remaining feed-in tariffs to install a larger system. However, once such installations run out, we may see all states return to smaller systems. This has two impacts worth noting - 1. it increases the competitiveness of the PV industry due to the low barriers to entry, and 2. it removes the state-policy counterbalance to federal policy settings over the past six years that have advantaged lower-quality product.

PV Market

  • Last month saw 84MW of PV registered across Australia, a slowdown from the peak of June/July.
  • >20% of Queenslanders recently chose a 5kW system, largely due to the ending feed-in tariff. By contrast those in states without feed-in tariffs sell 5kW systems only 7% of the time.
  • The PV industry continues to be highly competitive - the top 20 PV retailers and STC-creating wholesalers only account for 40% of the market
Want more information? Subscribe to Insights

STC Market
  • STC creation has been fairly steady at about 700k/week, but STC trading has noticably fallen in volume
  • Demand (purchases) for newly created STCs has fallen considerably in recent weeks, influencing the STC price.
  • With just over one week before the Q3 surrender period closes, liable entities already hold sufficient STCs, and the banks hold enough to meet liable entities Q4 requirements.
  • However, 6 liable entities remain short of their expected liability.
  • The weekly and monthly STC creation tally are displayed on our website - check in regularly.
Want more information? Subscribe to ClearView.  

Solar Hot Spots
Of the postcodes with more than 500 installations, the following areas have the largest average system size:
  1. Postcode 2680 (Griffith NSW) with an average system size of 4.75kW
  2. Postcode 4564 (Marcoola QLD) with an average system size of 3.52kW
  3. Postcode 4370 (Warwick QLD (woohoo!!!!)) with an average system size of 3.35kW
  4. Postcode 4213 (Mudgeeraba QLD) with an average system size of 3.34kW
  5. Postcode 2620 (Queanbeyan NSW) with an average system size of 3.32kW
Want to know which postcodes have the most PV in recent months? The largest system sizes in recent months? Where is solar hot? Subscribe to Solar Hot Spots.  
 

SunWiz Activities

In the last month, SunWiz has:
  • Presented to a standing-room-only audience at All Energy on the topic of how PVsell can help you close more commercial PV sales, more quickly and more accurately. Thanks for your feedback, people are loving what PVsell is doing for their business.
  • Designed an interactive dashboard for a PV distributor that helps them find new clients and better service their existing ones.
  • Some very exciting things I can't tell anyone about.
  • Extended a custom calculator of PV financial outcome
  • Performed numerous evaluations of PV financial outcome, using PVsell to identify the best system size and panel orientation.
  • Discovered remnant old-growth forest in a hidden valley in Northern NSW

To learn more about what we can do for your solar business, visit www.sunwiz.com.au

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Great Solar Pictures

This is a photo showin a combination of atmospheric effects caused by sunlight interacting with high-level ice. Its caused by the refraction and reflection of sunlight through geometrically-arranged ice crystals (like 'icebows').
For those reading this far, next month I'll be viewing the most amazing sun-phenomenon: a total solar eclipse (my fourth), in Cairns.
Sun Dog
Copyright © 2012 SunWiz, All rights reserved. 
 

100MW registered in August, Top 20 only create 30% of STC market, Teaching dad to surf
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Solar Market Intelligence

Solar Market Synopsis: September

PV Market

  • Last month saw 100MW of PV registered across Australia, a slowdown from the peak of June/July.
  • This means in excess of 540 MW has already been installed in 2012.
  • Analysis of Solar Choice pricing information shows that economies of scale are apparent: the gross (pre-STC) $/W of a 1.5kW is 25% higher than the $/W of a 3kW system.
Want more information? Subscribe to Insights

STC Market
  • STC creation has fallen back to 700k/week, whereas STC trading continues to grow in volume
  • STC creation is finally lower than demand (purchases) for newly created STCs.
  • Small STC creators are representing a growing portion of the market. Those outside the top 20 creators now account for almost 70% of creation
  • The weekly and monthly STC creation tally are displayed on our website - check in regularly.
Want more information? Subscribe to ClearView.  

Solar Hot Spots
  • The ABS 2011 Census data is being analysed to reveal newly emerging demographics favourable to solar uptake.
  • The data reveals that nationally 1 in 10 occupied dwellings now has a PV system. However, 16.7% of solar-suitable dwellings (owner occupied detached/semi-detached) now have PV.
  • Penetration is highest in SA (28% of suitable dwellings), compared to 11% in Victoria.
Want more information? Subscribe to Solar Hot Spots.  
 

SunWiz Activities

In the last month, SunWiz has:
  • Rallied the troops to make a submission against the Queensland Competition Authorities preference for gross metering in their issues paper.
  • Put through its final paces a cloud-based version of PVsell, and delivered training to highly-engaged new clients.
  • Presented at East Solar 2012 on Lessons from the Leaders of solar power.
  • Developed a customer-specific commercial PV financial calculator.
  • Assisted the APVA with its RET Review submission.
  • Designed a 1 MW off-grid PV power station which is extensible to 2 MW or 5 MW.
  • Co-authored the Clean Energy Councils Australian solar power report.
  • Successfully arranged for 4x 50kW systems to be connected to the network in three different distribution networks.
  • Taught my father to surf by pushing him onto waves at Byron Bay

To learn more about what we can do for your solar business, visit www.sunwiz.com.au

Free PVsell Training at All Energy 2012
 
PVsell accounts for so many complex financial factors
Make a compelling PV sales pitch with PVsell software from SunWiz

All Energy 2012: PVsell Demonstration & Training

Next week at All Energy, SunWiz will be providing free training  on how to use PVsell to make a compelling commercial PV sales pitches. We'll be in the Global Zone area at the rear left corner of the main exhibition hall (not the conference area). The demonstration/training runs from 12pm (sharp) until 1pm on Wednesday 10 October, and costs nothing to attend.

Numbers are limited so please let me know ahead of time if you intend on attending. 
Attendees that subsequently puchase PVsell will receive a sizable discount. Learn more about PVsell below.
Global Events Zone

Date: Wednesday 10 October
Time: 12:00-1:00 pm
Where: Global Zone Associated Events, (Rear Left of Main Exhibition Hall)

Cost to Attend: $0 (yes, free to attend)




“Closing commercial PV sales just got easier,” says Warwick Johnston, managing director of SunWiz. “No longer do you require a degree in economics to convince your customers that PV makes financial sense.” After three years of use by over one hundred solar businesses, SunWiz has brought its PVsell software online, in the process simplifying its operation and adding plenty of features. “The Australian PV industry has thus-far struggled to convert the massive potential for commercial PV systems, but PVsell helps unlock that opportunity,” claims the Warwick, who has won awards for industry leadership and best commercial PV system design.

In this interactive workshop, Warwick will demonstrate how to size the most profitable system for a commercial customer by deconstructing a sample electricity bill and creating a load profile. Attendees can work along on their iPad or laptop as PVsell is applied to calculate the payback, Net Present Value, and Internal Rate of Return for this sample customer, all summarised in a convincing graphical printout. Attendees will have the opportunities to seek advice on how to best sell commercial solar, ask questions about commonly encountered commercial situations, and . The session will conclude with a discussion of the non-financial aspects required to close more commercial PV sales.
Discounts on PVsell will be offered to attendees. Feel free to bring your iPad or laptop. For more information, visit www.pvsell.com.auFree to attend, limited seating available




PVsell helps you make a truly compelling PV Sales Pitch 

Your Ultimate Solar Sales Tool - Commercial & Residential 

  • Sell More Solar
  • Win Commercial Jobs
  • Close sales in the Field
  • Believable & Convincing
Used by over 100 Australian solar businesses, SunWiz's PVsell has been shown to dramatically increase sales, particuarly with discerning clients. 
How? PVsell convincingly communicates in the language commercial clients understand: financial outcome. It graphically displays results that are compelling and believeable, helping yourfinancial outcome


We're proud to announce that PVsell is now in the cloud. This makes PVsell in-field accessible to iPads and mobile devices, helping you close sales in the field. 
The best part is that from $450/year, it can pay for itself in a single sale.

Here's some of its features:
  • Calculations: Export, Payback, ROI, LCOE, NPV, IRR.
  • Load Profiles: Residential, Configurable, Uploadable
  • Tariffs: Default FiTs, Flat Rate, TOU, Demand Charges, Escalation
  • PV Performace: Degradation, Adjustable for installation conditions
  • Financials: Tax, Depreciation, Lease Periods
  • RECs: Automatic STC & LGC calculation, correct GST accounting.
Learn more about PVsell at www.pvsell.com.au
A glimpse of the PVsell dashboard:






Click here for more information: www.PVsell.com.au

Copyright © 2012 SunWiz, All rights reserved. 
 

For one week only, enjoy PVsell without opening your wallet
 
What will 2013 hold for your PV company?

Solar Outlook 2013

  • What will your PV market do next year?
  • How much PV will be installed?
  • What changes will affect the industry?
  • How will your business be affected?
  • What circumstances should you plan for?
The Australian PV market is subject to a myriad of forces that frequently change the near term outlook. Recently released market intelligence can assist companies aspiring to be major players in the PV industry to understand the scale of the opportunity, solve diverse and new challenges and position themselves to take advantage of sweet spots in the market.
 
SolarBusinessServices and SunWiz are proud to announce the release of their latest forecast report, “Australian PV – Market Outlook Summary to 2013” . This report draws extensively on the related analysis and report “Australian PV – Market Forecast 2011-2016” which is a detailed, long term market forecast. With recent changes in a number of key markets, we have produced this summary report which re-evaluates the near term market outlook providing a snapshot of market expectations. It details the key risks and opportunities we see coming in the next eighteen, months, resulting in upside and downside possibilities for the market as a whole.
 
The “Australian PV—Market Outlook Summary to 2013” focuses exclusively on the sub-100kW segment of the market, which is expected to represent more than 90% of market sales in 2012. Short, sharp and sweet, it is ideal for those wanted a summarised, near term view on the market. This is Highly Affodable and Highly Valuable Market Intelligence.
 
Click here for more information

 

Contents
  1. Synopsis
  2. Introduction
  3. First Half of 2012
  4. National data
  5. Queensland summary
  6. Victoria summary
  7. New South Wales summary
  8. outh Australia summary
  9. Western Australia summary
  10. Next 18 months, by State
  11. Opportunities and risks
  12. Outlook by quarter
  13. Outlook by State
  14. Low medium and high case scenarios
  15. Downside risks
  16. Upside risks
  17. Commercial market statement
  18. Forecast changes and impacts
  19. Summary tables
Click here for more information
Copyright © 2012 SunWiz, All rights reserved. 
 

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111MW registered in July, System Registration stronger than same time last year, Swimming with humpback whales in Tonga
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Solar Market Intelligence

Solar Market Synopsis: August

PV Market

  • Last month saw 111MW of PV registered across Australia, an almost-equivalent month of registration to June.
  • Lag between installation and registration implies that June's installation peak was higher than last year's. 
  • Victoria is running hot; and one-quarter of systems installed in Queensland in June was 5kW.
  • Analysis of Solar Choice pricing information shows that systems can be bought in Melbourne for the same average price as in Brisbane - evidence of strong competition in Victoria.
Want more information? Subscribe to Insights

STC Market
  • STC creation in the second half of 2012 (H2-2012) is likely to equal H2-2012 STC surrender.
  • Liable Entities are Banks combined current holdings are sufficient to meet Q3 requirements (11.1M STCs).
  • The weekly and monthly STC creation tally are displayed on our website - check in regularly.
Want more information? Subscribe to ClearView.  

Solar Hot Spots
  • New data was released showing postcode 4670 (Bundaberg) has the most solar capacity in Australia. 
  • However, it was Gladstone that installed most in Q2 - Cumulative installed capacity jumped by 50% in a single quarter when over 2MW in postcode 4870 (even before all systems are registered). 
  • Port Pirie (5540) in SA has one of the most stable installation rates in Australia.
Want more information? Subscribe to Solar Hot Spots.  
 

SunWiz Activities

In the last month, SunWiz has:
  • Launched a cloud-based version of PVsell, with overwhelming popularity and positive feedback (trial it today for nix).
  • Exhibited and Presented at Clean Energy Week/ATRAA. Download my presentation proving PV is variable rather than intermittant.
  • Helped a PV retailer identify their own solar hot spots.
  • Prepared a Commercial PV system proposal for a client, incorporating the latest graphs from PVsell.
  • Visited a company to advise on strategic direction.
  • Assisted the Department of Climate Change in reviewing solar production data.
  • Progressed multiple grid-connection applications for commercial PV systems.
  • Designed a number of commercial PV systems.
  • Gone swimming with Humpback Whales in Tonga

To learn more about what we can do for your solar business, visit www.sunwiz.com.au

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Latest Graphs on Facebook


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